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ITS » Master Theses » Statistika - S2
Posted by aprill@is.its.ac.id at 15/03/2016 07:40:10  •  1042 Views


PROYEKSI JUMLAH PENDUDUK INDONESIA DENGAN MODEL MATEMATIKA

Author :
HILALY, MUHAMAD ( 1399202010 )




ABSTRAK

Suatu masalah dalam dunia nyata sering sulit dianalisa perkembangannya sehingga perlu dilakukan pendekatan untuk menjelaskan meramalkan atau memutuskan sebagai jawaban permasalahan yang sedang diselidiki seperti masalah menentukan proyeksi jumlah penduduk Indonesia dalam selang waktu tertentu. Salah satu pendekatan untuk menerangkan kejadian nyata di atas adalah menerjemahkan kedalam bahasa matematika mengingat bahasa matematika lebih sederhana dan cara kerjanya lebih matematis. Dengan model matematika yang di dapatkan dapat untuk menentukan proyeksi jumlah penduduk Indonesia tiap tahun berdasar data sensus penduduk yang sudah ada sehingga tidak perlu melaksanakan sensus penduduk tiap tahun. Dalam pengolahan data dengan pendekatan model pertumbuhan populasi Malthus dan model pertumbuhan populasi Verhulst dari tahun 1960 sampai dengan tahun 2000 jumlah penduduk Indonesia dapat ditentukan yang kemudian digunakan untuk meramalkan jumlah penduduk masa mendatang dengan model Double Exponential Smoothing. Dari sini tampak bahwa proyeksi jurnlah penduduk dengan model perturnbuhan populasi Malthus dan model pertumbuhan populasi Verhulst hampir sama ini disebabkan selang waktu yang digunakan cukup pendek yaitu 10 tahunan antara dua sensus tetapi dilihat dari tingkat akurasi peramalannya model pertumbuhan populasi Verhulst lebih akurat dibanding model prtumbuhan populasi Malthus. Untuk memudahkan perhitungan model Malthus dan model Verhulst dibuat program dengan Borlnd C dan perhitungan peramalannya menggunakan perangkat Minitab.


ABSTRACT

The real problem is often difficult to be analised so need to be carried out an approaching to explain forecast and decide as a solution which has been beimg observed i.e a problem to determine a number of Indonesian people on a certain time interval. One of the method to explain the problem mentioned above is to make a mathematical modelling as the mathematical modeling is simpler and systematic. Further by using this mathematical modeling we will be able to determine a number oflndonesian people by each year basing on the existed census data. In processing data by using Malthus and Verhulst model of between 1960 and 2000 the number of the Indonesian people can be determine and then this number is use to forecast the number of Indonesian people in the future using a double Exponential smoothing. It is obtained that there is no difference between Malthus and Verhulst model. This is caused by an interval that is used is short enough i.e 10 years. However from the forecasting accuration level the verhulst model is more accurate then Malthus model. To make easy of calculating the Malthus and Verhulst model it is made a computer programming using Borland C and then Minitab is used to calaulate the forecast.



KeywordsPROYEKSI; JUMLAH PENDUDUK; INDONESIA; MODEL MATEMATIKA
 
Subject:  Penduduk peramalan - model matematika
Contributor
  1. Dra. Farida Agustini W. M.S.
Date Create: 15/03/2016
Type: Text
Format: pdf
Language: Indonesian
Identifier: ITS-Master-13103150001569
Collection ID: 13103150001569
Call Number: RT 511.8 Hil p


Source
Master Theses of Statistics, RT 511.8 Hil p, 2001

Coverage
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Copyright @2012 by ITS Library. This publication is protected by copyright and per obtained from the ITS Library prior to any prohibited reproduction, storage in a re transmission in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, reco For information regarding permission(s), write to ITS Library




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  1.  ITS-Master-40761-Abstract_id.pdf - 215 KB
  2.  ITS-Master-40761-Abstract_en.pdf - 205 KB
  3.  ITS-Master-40761-Conclusion.pdf - 200 KB




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