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ITS » Master Theses » Statistika -- Matematika Industri
Posted by anis at 30/12/2006 14:47:31  •  19381 Views


PROYEKSI JUMLAH PENDUDUK INDONESIA DENGAN MODEL MATEMATIKA

FORECASTING OF INDONESIAN PEOPLE NUMBER BY USING A MATHEMATICAL MODEL

Author :
HILALY, MUHAMAD 




ABSTRAK

Suatu masalah dalam dunia nyata sering sulit dianalisa perkembangannya sehingga perlu dilakukan pendekatan untuk menjelaskan meramalkan atau memutuskan sebagai jawaban permasalahan yang sedang diselidiki seperti masalah menentukan proyeksi jumlah penduduk Indonesia dalam selang waktu tertentu. Salah satu pendekatan untuk menerangkan kejadian nyata di atas adalah menerjemahkan kedalam bahasa matematika mengingat bahasa matematika lebih sederhana dan cara kerjanya lebih matematis. Dengan model matematika yang di dapatkan dapat untuk menentukan proyeksi jumlah penduduk Indonesia tiap tahun berdasar data sensus penduduk yang sudah ada sehingga tidak perlu melaksanakan sensus penduduk tiap tahun. Dalam pengolahan data dengan pendekatan model pertumbuhan populasi Malthus dan model pertumbuhan populasi Verhulst dari tahun 1960 sampai dengan tahun 2000 jumlah penduduk Indonesia dapat ditentukan yang kemudian digunakan untuk meramalkan jumlah penduduk masa mendatang dengan model Double Exponential Smoothing. Dari sini tampak bahwa proyeksi jumlah penduduk dengan model pertumbuhan populasi Malthus dan model pertumbuhan populasi Verhulst hampir sama ini disebabkan selang waktu yang digunakan cukup pendek yaitu 10 tahunan antara dua sensus tetapi dilihat dari tingkat akurasi peramalannya model pertumbuhan populasi Verhulst lebih akurat dibanding model prtumbuhan populasi Malthus. Untuk memudahkan perhitungan model Malthus dan model Verhulst dibuat program dengan Borlnd C dan perhitungan peramalannya menggunakan perangkat Minitab.


ABSTRACT

The real problem is often difficult to be analised so need to be carried out an approaching to explain forecast and decide as a solution which has been beimg observed i.e a problem to determine a number of Indonesian people on a certain time interval. One of the method to explain the problem mentioned above is to make a mathematical modelling as the mathematical modeling is simpler and systematic. Further by using this mathematical modeling we will be able to determine a number of Indonesian people by each year basing on the existed census data. In processing data by using Malthus and Verhulst model of between 1960 and 2000 the number of the Indonesian people can be determine and then this number is use to forecast the number of Indonesian people in the future using a double Exponential smoothing. It is obtained that there is no difference between Malthus and Verhulst model. This is caused by an interval that is used is short enough i.e 10 years. However from the forecasting accuration level the verhulst model is more accurate then Malthus model.. To make easy of calculating the Malthus and Verhulst model it is made a computer programming using Borland C and then Minitab is used to calaulate the forecast.



KeywordsProyeksi jumlah penduduk Indonesia; model matematika
 
Subject:  model matematika
Contributor
  1. Dra. Farida Agustini Widjajati, M.S.
    Drs. Mohammad Setijo Winarko, M.Si.
Date Create: 30/12/2006
Type: Text
Format: pdf; 58 pages
Language: Indonesian
Identifier: ITS-Master-3100002015408
Collection ID: 3100002015408
Call Number: 511.8 Hil p


Source
Theses Industry Mathematic RT 511.8 Hil p, 2001

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