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ITS » Master Theses » Statistika - S2
Posted by dewi007 at 28/08/2009 09:56:12  •  4894 Views


ANALISIS INTERVENSI MULTI INPUT FUNGSI STEP DAN PULSE UNTUK PERAMALAN KUNJUNGAN WISATAWAN KE INDONESIA

MULTI INPUT INTERVENTION ANALYSIS WITH STEP AND PULSE FUNCTIONS FOR FORECASTING TOURIST ARRIVALS TO INDONESIA

Author :
Nuvitasari, Eka ( 1307201720 )




ABSTRAK

Model intervensi adalah suatu model time series yang dapat digunakan untuk memodelkan dan meramalkan data yang mengandung goncangan atau intervensi baik dari faktor eksternal maupun internal. Ada dua fungsi utama yang digunakan dalam model intervensi yaitu fungsi step dan pulse. Sampai saat ini penelitian tentang analisis intervensi terbatas hanya memasukkan satu jenis goncangan single input yaitu fungsi step atau pulse saja. Belum adanya prosedur baku dalam pemodelan intervensi pada data yang mengandung lebih dari satu jenis goncangan multi input memberikan peluang untuk kajian lebih lanjut berkaitan dengan intervensi multi input. Penelitian ini mengkaji secara teoritis dan terapan tentang intervensi multi input. Kajian teoritis dilakukan untuk mendapatkan prosedur yang tepat dalam pemodelan intervensi multi input. Selanjutnya kajian terapan dilakukan untuk memodelkan kunjungan wisatawan mancanegara wisman ke Indonesia melalui pintu masuk Bandara Soekarno-Hatta Bandara Ngurah Rai Batam dan Bandara Polonia dengan variabel intervensi krisis moneter yang terjadi sejak Juli 1997 fungsi step bom Bali I pada Oktober 2002 fungsi pulse I dan bom Bali II pada Oktober 2005 fungsi pulse II. Hasil analisis yang dilakukan menunjukkan bahwa pengaruh yang ditimbulkan oleh kejadian-kejadian intervensi tersebut berbeda pada tiap pintu masuk. Secara umum krisis moneter memberikan efek negatif di setiap pintu masuk. Namun besar dan waktu terjadinya penurunan tersebut berbeda karena dipengaruhi juga oleh kejadian lokal. Bom Bali I dan II relatif hanya berpengaruh di Bali. Sedangkan di pintu masuk lainnya efek yang terjadi setelah bom Bali I lebih cenderung merupakan efek dari isu wabah SARS khususnya di Batam. Begitu juga efek setelah Bom Bali II cenderung merupakan efek dari isu wabah flu burung di Jakarta dan kebijakan penutupan perjudian di Batam. Bahkan di Medan efek dari dua kejadian tersebut tidak ada.


ABSTRACT

Intervention model is one of time series models that can be used to forecast data consist of disturbance or intervention that come from internal or external factors. Generally there are two kinds of intervention function i.e. step and pulse functions. Most of intervention researches that have done only contain an intervention with single input that is step or pulse function only. Until now there is no basic procedure to build intervention model with step and pulse functions together multi input. It gives a chance to investigate multi input intervention analysis. This research is focused on the theoretically and practically study about multi input intervention. Theoretical learning was done to get the procedure for modeling multi input intervention. Then practical learning is applied to tourist arrivals to Indonesia via four main entrances i.e. Soekarno-Hatta Ngurah Rai Batam and Polonia Airport. Intervention variables that are used in this research are monetary crisis since July 1997 step function Bali bomb I at October 2002 pulse function and Bali bomb II at October 2005 pulse function. The results of the analysis showed that the effects of intervention variables are different in each entrance. Generally monetary crisis gives negative effect on each entrance although the value and period of the decrease is different because of local interventions. Bali bomb I and II relatively affected in Bali. Whereas on other entrance i.e. Batam and Jakarta effect of Bali bomb I can be considered as effects of SARS epidemic issues. Thus effect of Bali bomb II can be considered as effects of Avian Influenza epidemic and the closing of gambling center. In Medan Bali bomb I and II did not affect to tourist arrivals.



KeywordsAnalisis intervensi multi input ; ARIMA ; bom bali ; krisis moneter ; kunjungan wisatawan
 
Subject:  Analisis waktu;Pramuwisata
Contributor
  1. Dr. Suhartono, S.Si., M.Sc.
    Dr. Ir. Sasmito Hadi Wibowo, M.Sc.
Date Create: 28/08/2009
Type: Text
Format: pdf.
Language: Indonesian
Identifier: ITS-Master-3100009035101
Collection ID: 3100009035101
Call Number: RTSt 519.55 Nuv a


Source
Master Theses of Statistic, RTSt 519.55 Nuv a, 2009

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ITS-Master-3100009035101-5252.pdf




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