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ITS » Master Theses » Manajemen Asset - S2
Posted by aprill@is.its.ac.id at 21/01/2015 22:37:36  •  1177 Views


ANALISA PENENTUAN MASA KONSESI DENGAN MODEL SIMULASI PADA PROYEK PPP JALAN TOL KERTOSONO-MOJOKERTO

ANALYSIS OF CONCESSION PERIOD DETERMINATION USING SIMULATION MODEL CASE STUDY KERTOSONO-MOJOKERTO TOLL ROAD PPP PROJECTS

Author :
WAHYUNARSO, RIZKI HARI  ( 3111207806 )




ABSTRAK

Penyelenggaraan jalan tol di Indonesia saat ini menjadi prioritas utama pemerintah dalam mendorong percepatan pembangunan melalui bentuk kerjasama Public Private Partnership PPP. Dalam skema kerjasama menggunakan bentuk konsesi dimana masa konsesi merupakan hal yang sangat penting bagi pemerintah dan swasta agar dapat menguntungkan kedua belah pihak. Penentuan masa konsesi tidak hanya mempertimbangkan kepentingan pemerintah akan tetapi harus mengakomodasi kepentingan swasta dengan mempertimbangkan faktor resiko dan ketidakpastian. Tujuan dari penelitian ini adalah untuk menentukan masa konsesi yang optimal pada proyek PPP jalan tol Kertosono-Mojokerto. Penentuan masa konsesi dilakukan dengan melakukan perhitungan NPV dengan tingkat IRR tertentu. Identifikasi faktor resiko dan ketidakpastian diperoleh dari studi literatur dan expert judgment yang menghasilkan analisa data kuantitatif. Model simulasi dibangun dengan menggunakan teknik simulasi Montecarlo pada risk for excel versi 5.5 dan skenario simulasi dibuat 3 model masa konsesi untuk 25 tahun 30 tahun dan 35 tahun. Untuk validasi model proyek PPP jalan tol Kertosono-Mojokerto digunakan sebagai studi kasus. Ada beberapa faktor resiko dan ketidakpastian yang diakomodasi oleh model ini yaitu resiko pada konstruksi resiko pada volume lalu lintas dan resiko yang dipengaruhi oleh keadaan ekonomi. Hasil perhitungan yang diperoleh dari simulasi yang dilakukan adalah nilai mean NPV sebesar Rp. 2.183.874.704.000- dan nilai mean IRR 1684 dengan masa konsesi yang optimal sepanjang 30 tahun.


ABSTRACT

Implementation of toll roads in Indonesia is now the governments top priority in promoting development acceleration through Public Private Partnership PPP cooperation. In the concessions cooperation scheme the concession period is very important for the government and the private sector in order to benefit both parties. Determination of the concession period does not only consider the interests of the government but also to accommodate the private interests by considering risk factors and uncertainties. The purpose of this study was to determine the optimal of the concession period for Kertosono-Mojokerto toll road PPP projects. Determination of the concession period is done by calculating the NPV with certain level of IRR. Identification of risk factors and uncertainties is obtained from literature review and expert judgment that produce quantitative data analysis. Simulation model was built by using Montecarlo simulations on Risk for Excel version 5.5 and scenarios simulation were created in 3 models of consession period as follows 25 years 30 years and 35 years. To validate the model Kertosono-Mojokerto toll road PPP projects is used as a case study. There are several risk factors and uncertainties are accommodated by this model namely the risk in the construction traffic volume risk and the risk that influenced by the economic situation. Calculation results that obtained from the simulation are the mean NPV of Rp. 2183874704000 - and the IRR mean value of 16.84 with optimal concession period of 30 years.



KeywordsKonsesi; Public Private Partnership dan Resiko
 
Subject:  jalan tol
Contributor
  1. TRI JOKO WAHYU ADI, ST, MT, PhD
  2. FARIDA RACHMAWATI
Date Create: 30/10/2013
Type: Text
Format: pdf
Language: Indonesian
Identifier: ITS-Master-31103150001260
Collection ID: 31103150001260
Call Number: RTS 625.7 Wah a


Source
Master Theses of Civil Engineering, RTS 625.7 Wah a, 2015

Coverage
ITS Community

Rights
Copyright @2015 by ITS Library. This publication is protected by copyright and per obtained from the ITS Library prior to any prohibited reproduction, storage in a re transmission in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, reco For information regarding permission(s), write to ITS Library




[ Download - Open Access ]

  1.  ITS-Master-35677-3111207806-Abstract_id.pdf - 212 KB
  2.  ITS-Master-35677-3111207806-Abstract_en.pdf - 213 KB
  3.  ITS-Master-35677-3111207806-Conclusion.pdf - 213 KB




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