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ITS » Master Theses » Manajemen Proyek-S2 MMT
Posted by fandikaaqsa@its.ac.id at 03/12/2015 10:23:44  •  884 Views


ESTIMASI BIAYA KONTINGENSI BERBASIS RESIKO PADA PROYEK EPC ENGINEERING PROCUREMENT AND CONSTRUCTION

ESTIMATING PROJECT COST CONTINGENCY BASED ON RISK ANALYSIS FOR EPC ENGINEERING PROCUREMENT AND CONSTRUCTION

Author :
YUNWANTI, SULY ( 9112202307 )




ABSTRAK

Kinerja proyek konstruksi dapat diukur dari pencapaian penyelesaian proyek terhadap schedule anggaran biaya dan mutu yang ditetapkan. Selama siklus hidup proyek akan selalu meghadapi kondisi ketidakpastian uncertainty dan resiko yang sering mengakibatkan terjadinya overbudget. Proyek EPC adalah proyek dimana ruang lingkup perkerjaan meliputi disain pengadaan material dan konstruksi. Proyek EPC adalah proyek yang cukup rumit kompleks dan memiliki resiko yang lebih besar bagi pihak Kontraktor sehingga diperlukan penambahan biaya kontingensi untuk mengantisipasi terjadinya overbudget. Pada penelitian ini identifikasi faktor resiko yang mempengaruhi biaya kontingensi pada proyek EPC diperoleh dari hasil survey pendahuluan brainstorming wawancara penyebaran kuisioner maupun studi literatur. Resikoresiko tersebut dianalisa secara kualitatif dengan matriks probabilitas dampak dan dihitung bobot resikonya dengan metode pair-wise comparison. Sedangkan pemodelan perhitungan biaya kontingensi menggunakan metode simulasi Montecarlo. Hasil penelitian proyek EPC Proyek Pengadaan Pemasangan Pipa Gas Distribusi di wilayah Jabodetabek menunjukkan bahwa lima faktor resiko yang paling signifikan mempengaruhi besaran biaya kontingensi pada tahap engineering adalah persetujuan gambar disain kondisi unforeseen waktu pelaksanaan yang terlalu ketat kompetensi SDM dan ketidaksesuaian spesifikasi material . Pada tahap procurement adalah proses persetujuan material proses pengiriman material kontrak kerja yang kurang jelas perhitungan volume dan harga satuan material tidak akurat serta pemilihan supplier material sedangkan tahap construction adalah perubahan metode kerja keterlambatan penyelesaian pekerjaan kompetensi SDM pembiayaan proyek kondisi cuaca. Sedangkan biaya kontingensi rata-rata dari hasil simulasi Montecarlo adalah sebesar Rp.2.865.572.951 atau sebesar 3.60 terhadap Nilai Total Pekerjaan dengan simpangan baku sebesar Rp.521.901.231- atau sebesar 0.67. Hasil Uji validasi model simulasi terhadap biaya aktual proyek menunjukkan adanya deviasi sebesar 0.53 sehingga hasil pemodelan perhitungan biaya kontingensi dapat dikatakan realistis.


ABSTRACT

Construction project performance can be measured by the achievement of the completion of the project according to the fulfillment of schedule budget and quality requirements. During project implementation process will have problems of uncertainty and the risks of affecting cost estimation of the project . It is necessary for risk analysis to determine the most significant risk factors and plan the cost of the project risks cost contingency due to the condition of the construction project which has the potential high risk of event uncertainty . EPC Project was a project where a contractor working on the project includes the design material procurement and construction. EPC project was a project that quite complicated complex and faces many problems . The Contractor has consequences to accept a greater risk impact and should be consider the project cost contingency for anticipating the overbudget. This research aims to identify risk factors affected by the cost contingency at EPC project activities is obtained from preliminary surveys brainstorming interviews and questionnaires as well as previous research studies . Risks are analyzed qualitatively to determine the classification level and weight of risk using probability impact matrix and pair-wise comparison . Risk factors with a high risk category are quantified by using Montecarlo Simulation method to determine project cost contingency. The research on Project Gas Pipeline Distribution in Jabodetabek show the critical risks on engineering process are approval design drawings unforeseen condition scheduling human resources and material specification. The critical risks on procurement process are approval material delivery materials contract agreement unit price materials estimate and supplier capability On construction process the critical risks occurred on construction method scheduling human resources project cash flow and weather condition. The Montecarlo simulation results show that the average cost contingency is Rp.2.865.572.951 or 3.60 of Total Contract with a standard deviation of Rp.521.901.231 - or 0.67. Validation result of the model against to the project actual cost indicate a deviation of contingency cost is 053. Therefore the cost contingency estimation in this research is a realistic model for EPC Project.



KeywordsAnalisis resiko; Projek EPC; Simulasi Monte Carlo; Biaya kontingensi
 
Subject:  Manajemen proyek
Contributor
  1. Tri Joko Wahyu Adi, ST, MT, Ph.D
Date Create: 03/12/2015
Type: Text
Format: PDF
Language: Indonesian
Identifier: ITS-Master-91103150001463
Collection ID: 91103150001463
Call Number: RTMT 658.404 Yun e


Source
Master Theses of Magister Managemen Technology, RTMT 658.404 Yun e, 2014

Coverage
ITS Community

Rights
Copyright @2015 by ITS Library. This publication is protected by copyright and per obtained from the ITS Library prior to any prohibited reproduction, storage in a re transmission in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, reco For information regarding permission(s), write to ITS Library




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  1.  ITS-Master-39866-9112202307-abstract_id.pdf - 257 KB
  2.  ITS-Master-39866-9112202307-abstract_en.pdf - 256 KB
  3.  ITS-Master-39866-9112202307-conclusion.pdf - 256 KB




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