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ITS » Non Degree » Statistika - D3
Posted by dewi007 at 08/01/2010 15:47:48  •  3305 Views


ANALISIS PERAMALAN TERHADAP KEBUTUHAN BAHAN BAKU KERTAS ROLL CD SURAT KABAR JAWA POS DI PT. TEMPRINA MEDIA GRAFIKA DENGAN METODE INTERVENSI

TIME SERIES ANALYSIS TO CD ROLL PAPER BASIC MATERIAL NECESSITY OF JAWA POS NEWSPAPER AT TEMPRIMA MEDIA GRAFIKA LTD USING INTERVENTION METHOD

Author :
AKMALI, ALFI ( 1306030003 )




ABSTRAK

Jawa Pos merupakan surat kabar terbesar di Jawa Timur dimana proses produksi surat kabar tersebut berada di PT. Temprina Media Grafika. Dalam proses produksi surat kabar tersebut diperlukan beberapa jenis bahan baku salah satunya adalah kertas roll CD. Jumlah kebutuhan terhadap kertas roll CD tersebut sangat berfluktuasi hal inilah yang menyebabkan peramalan terhadap kebutuhan kertas roll CD tersebut sulit untuk dilakukan. Ada beberapa faktor yang dianggap mempengaruhi peramalan kebutuhan kertas roll CD tersebut yaitu salah satunya adalah adanya hari raya Idul Fitri yang membuat jumlah kebutuhan kertas roll CD jauh berbeda dibandingkan dengan jumlah kebutuhan pada hari biasa. Salah satu tujuan dari penelitian ini adalah memperoleh model terbaik untuk meramalkan kebutuhan kertas roll CD menggunakan metode intervensi. Hasil peramalan untuk 14 periode mendatang mengalami pola yang yang sama dengan periode sebelumnya yaitu pada hari Sabtu dan Minggu akan mengalami kenaikan dibandingkan dengan hari lainnya. Metode intervensi lebih tepat digunakan dalam meramakan kebutuhan kertas roll CD surat kabar Jawa Pos dibandingkan dengan metode ARIMA Box-Jenkins.


ABSTRACT

Jawa Pos is the biggest newspaper in East Java the newspaper produced by Temprina Media Grafika The temprina Media Grafika TMG Ltd need CD roll paper depend on Jawa Pos order so CD roll paper necessities is fluctuate and to make prediction of CD roll paper very difficult. There are some factors which influence to prediction of CD roll paper one of them is Idul Fitri holiday which make the CD roll paper necessities is very different with other day. One of goal this research is to find forecast model of CD roll paper necessities by using intervention method. Forecast for next 14 periods have equal patern with previous that is on Saturday and Sunday will increase compared with other days. Intervention method is more precisely used to prediction the CD roll necessities of Jawa Pos newspaper compared with ARIMA Box-Jenkins Method.



KeywordsKebutuhan Kertas Roll CD ; Hari Raya Idul Fitri ; Intervensi
 
Subject:  Kertas;Analisis waktu
Contributor
  1. Dr. Brodjol Sutijo, S.U., M.Si.
Date Create: 08/01/2010
Type: Text
Format: pdf.
Language: Indonesian
Identifier: ITS-NonDegree-3100009036362
Collection ID: 3100009036362
Call Number: RSSt 519.55 Akm a


Source
Non Degree of Department Statistics, RSSt 519.55 Akm a, 2009

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Copyright @2009 by ITS Library. This publication is protected by copyright and permission should be obtained from the ITS Library prior to any prohibited reproduction, storage in a retrievel system, or transmission in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording, or likewise. For information regarding permission(s), write to ITS Library




[ Download - Open Access ]

  1.  ITS-NonDegree-7295-1306030003-kesimpulan.pdf - 54 KB




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