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ITS » Non Degree » Statistika - D3
Posted by dee@its.ac.id at 10/01/2012 14:15:47 • 129 Views
ANALISIS PERAMALAN JUMLAH PENUMPANG KERETA API PENATARAN TUJUAN SURABAYA-MALANG
FORECASTING ANALYSIS THE NUMBER OF PASSENGERS PENATARAN TRAINS ’’SURABAYA-MALANG’’ DESTINATION
Created by :
DITAGO, ANDRIA PRIMA ( 1308030053 )
| Subject: | Manajemen penjualan | | Alt. Subject : | Box-jenkins forecasting | | Keyword: | ARIMA Box-Jenkins
Outlier
Winters
Out-Sample
RMSE |
[ Description ]
Transportasi merupakan sarana perkembangan yang penting dan strategis dalam memperlancar roda perekonomian, memperkukuh persatuan dan kesatuan serta mempengaruhi semua aspek kehidupan. Kereta api merupakan transportasi dengan multi keunggulan komparatif seperti hemat bahan bakar, energi, rendah polusi, bersifat masal, adaptif dengan tugas pokok dan fungsi mobilisasi arus penumpang dan barang di atas rel. Penelitian menggunakan data jumlah penumpang kereta api Penataran periode 6 Januari 2010-6 Januari 2011. Metode analisis peramalan yang digunakan yaitu ARIMA Box-Jenkins dan eksponensial tripel winters. Dari dua metode tersebut akan dibandingkan nilai residual yang telah diperoleh dari kriteria out-sample. Pemodelan terbaik didapatkan dengan menggunakan metode ARIMA Box-Jenkins dengan deteksi outlier diperoleh nilai RMSE paling kecil dengan data out-sample harian periode 23 Desember 2010-6 Januari 2011.
Alt. Description
Transportation is an important development facilities and strategic to to grow the national economy , strengthen the unity and the integrity of Indonesian people and will influence all the aspect social life as well. The railway is a mass transportation which has some comparative advantages such as saving fuel/energy with the low pollution and adaptive with basic purpose and mobilization functions of the passengers and goods flow on the rail track. The study was conducted with using data the number of passangers of Penataran trains for period 6 January 2010 - 6 January 2011. The method of forecasting analysis which used is ARIMA Box Jenkins and exponential of triple winters. From that both method will be compared the residual value that has been obtained from the criteria of out-sample. The best modeling obtained using the Box-Jenkins ARIMA method by outlier detection was obtained the smallest RMSE values with daily data of out-sample for period 23 December 2010-6 January 2011.
| Contributor | : |
- Ir. Dwiatmono Agus, M.Ikomp
| | Date Create | : | 07/07/2011 | | Type | : | Text | | Format | : | pdf | | Language | : | Indonesian | | Identifier | : | ITS-NonDegree-3100011045092 | | Collection ID | : | 3100011045092 | | Call Number | : | RSSt 519.535 Dit a |
Source :
Non Degree of Statistics, RSSt 519.535 Dit a, 2011
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