EMAIL: PASSWORD:
Front Office
UPT. PERPUSTAKAAN
Institut Teknologi Sepuluh Nopember Surabaya


Kampus ITS Sukolilo - Surabaya 60111

Phone : 031-5921733 , 5923623
Fax : 031-5937774
E-mail : libits@its.ac.id
Website : http://library.its.ac.id

Support (Customer Service) :
timit_perpus@its.ac.id




Welcome..guys!

Have a problem with your access?
Please, contact our technical support below:
LIVE SUPPORT


Moh. Fandika Aqsa


Davi Wahyuni


Tondo Indra Nyata


Anis Wulandari


Ansi Aflacha




ITS » Research Report » Statistika
Posted by dwi at 17/01/2008 17:55:34  •  22182 Views


PENERAPAN DAN PERBANDINGAN MODEL INTERVENSI DAN MODEL FUNGSI TRANSFER UNTUK ANALISIS FAKTOR-FAKTOR YANG BERPENGARUH TERHADAP JUMLAH PENUMPANG KERETA API DAN PESAWAT UDARA JURUSAN SURABAYA-JAKARTA

Author :
Suhartono, Bambang Widjanarko 




ABSTRAK

Tujuan dari penelitian ini adalah untuk melakukan kajian tentang penerapan dan perbandingan model-model dalam analisis time series khususnya model intervensi model variasi kalender dan model fungsi transfer. Model Intervensi digunakan untuk menjelaskan efek krisis yang terjadi mulai Juli 1997 terhadap fluktuasi jumlah penumpang kereta api dan pesawat udara. Model variasi kalender diharapkan dapat mengukur dan menjelaskan pengaruh lebaran. Sedangkan model fungsi transfer digunakan untuk melihat pengaruh faktor inflasi atau perubahan harga yang diproksi dengan Indeks Harga Konsumen terhadap fluktuasi jumlah penumpang tersebut. Hasil analisis terhadap tiga data sebagai studi kasus menunjukkan bahwa efek krisis hanya signifikan pada fluktuasi jumlah penumpang pesawat udara. Lebaran yang merupakan salah satu variasi kalender yang terjadi di Indonesia secara signifikan mempengaruhi kenaikan jumlah penumpang kereta api kelas eksekutif dan bisnis dimana pengaruh kenaikan pada kelas bisnis adalah lebih besar dibanding pada kelas eksekutif. Model fungsi transfer memberikan gambaran bahwa ketiga kasus yang berkaitan dengan jumlah penumpang kereta api dan pesawat secara siginifikan dipengaruhi oleh fluktuasi harga yang dalam penelitian ini diproksi dengan IHK. Secara umum hasil perbandingan dari ketiga kasus yang ada adalah 1 model intervensi memberikan hasil lebih baik tingkat kesalahan ramalan lebih kecil dibanding model fungsi transfer pada prediksi jumlah penumpang pesawat 2 Model variasi kalender memberikan hasil lebih baik pada prediksi jumlah penumpang kereta api kelas bisnis 3 sedangkan model fungsi transfer memberikan hasil lebih baik pada kasus jumlah penumpang kereta api eksekutif. Secara umum hasil dari penelitian ini memberikan suatu gambaran terbukanya peluang digunakannya model gabungan hybrid model dari model yang sudah ada baik model intervensi variasi kalender fungsi transfer dan ataupun GARCH.


ABSTRACT

The aim of this research is to study of the application and comparison between models in time series analysis particularly intervention variation calendar and transfer function models. Intervention model is used to describe the effect of crisis that happened starting on July 1997 to the fluctuation of the number of train and plane passengers. Variation calendar model used in order to quantify and explain the effect of lebaran. Then transfer function model used to know the effect of inflation factor or price changing that be proxy by Consumer Price Indices IHK to the fluctuation of these number of passengers. The result of the analysis to three data as case studies show that the effect of crisis only significant to the fluctuation of the number of plane passengers. Lebaran which is one of the variation calendars that happens in Indonesia significantly influences the increasing of the number of train passengers business and executive classes which the increasing effect to business class is greater than to executive class. Transfer function model yields that three cases correlating with the number of train and plane passengers significantly influenced by price fluctuation that be proxy by IHK. In general the result of the comparison to three cases are 1 intervention model yields better result smaller level of forecast error than transfer function model for forecasting the number of plane passengers 2 variation calendar model show better result for forecasting the number of business class of train passengers and 3 transfer function model yields better result for forecasting the number of executive class of train passengers. Additionally the result of this research give a description that there is a big chance to use hybrid model of the available models including intervention variation calendar transfer function and or QARCH models.



KeywordsAnalisis faktor ; Analisis time series
 
Subject:  Analisis multivarian
Date Create: 17/01/2008
Type: Text
Format: pdf ; 59 pages
Language: Indonesian
Identifier: ITS-Research-3100005066032
Collection ID: 3100005066032
Call Number: ITS 519.535 4 Suh p


Coverage
ITS community only

Rights
Copyright @2005 by ITS Library. This publication is protected by copyright and permission should be obtained from the ITS Library prior to any prohibited reproduction, storage in a retrievel system, or transmission in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording, or likewise. For information regarding permission(s), write to ITS Library




[ Download - Summary ]

ITS-Research-3100005066032-1678.pdf




 Similar Document...




! ATTENTION !

To facilitate the activation process, please fill out the member application form correctly and completely

Registration activation of our members will process up to max 24 hours (confirm by email). Please wait patiently

POLLING

Bagaimana pendapat Anda tentang layanan repository kami ?

Bagus Sekali
Baik
Biasa
Jelek
Mengecewakan





You are connected from 34.201.18.139
using CCBot/2.0 (https://commoncrawl.org/faq/)



Copyright © ITS Library 2006 - 2020 - All rights reserved.
Dublin Core Metadata Initiative and OpenArchives Compatible
Developed by Hassan