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ITS » Undergraduate Theses » Statistika
Posted by tondoindra@gmail.com at 23/06/2015 19:02:04  •  843 Views


PEMODELAN FAKTOR-FAKTOR YANG MEMPENGARUHI ANGKA KEMATIAN BAYI DENGAN MENGGUNAKAN REGRESI NONPARAMETRIK SPLINE DI SUMATERA UTARA

MODELING FACTORS AFFECTING THE INFANT MORTALITY RATE USING SPLINE NONPARAMETRIC REGRESSION IN NORTH SUMATERA

Author :
GINTING, ANDEREAS ( 1310100081 )




ABSTRAK

Salah satu dari 8 butir target MDGs nasional adalah angka kematian bayi. Angka kematian bayi merupakan salah satu tolok ukur penilaian kinerja pemerintah daerah khususnya departemen kesehatan dalam usaha memperbaiki derajat kesehatan masyarakat. Angka kematian bayi adalah banyaknya kematian bayi berusia dibawah satu tahun per 1000 kelahiran hidup pada satu tahun tertentu. Pada penelitian ini ada enam faktor yang diduga mempengaruhi angka kematian bayi di provinsi Sumatera Utara. Metode yang digunakan untuk memodelkan angka kematian bayi dan faktor yang diduga mempengaruhinya adalah regresi nonparametrik spline. Metode ini dipilih karena spline akan membagi kurva regresi berdasarkan titik knot optimal sehingga error yang dihasilkan akan kecil. Pemilihan titik knot dilakukan dengan memilih nilai Generalized Cross Validation GCV yang paling minimum. GCV minimum pada penelitian ini adalah GCV dari kombinasi knot dengan knot untuk keenam variabel secara berturut-turut adalah 23333 dan 3. Berdasarkan analisis yang telah dilakukan 6 variabel yang berpengaruh signifikan terhadap AKB adalah presentase wanita berkeluarga di bawah umur 17 tahun presentase wanita yang tidak pernah sekolah atau tidak tamat SDMI presentase persalinan yang menggunakan tenaga non medis presentase penduduk golongan sosial ekonomi menengah kebawah rasio fasilitas kesehatan rasio tenaga kesehatan. Model regresi nonparametrik Spline yang dihasilkan memiliki koefisien determinasi sebesar 98314.


ABSTRACT

One of the 8 points of the national MDG target is theinfant mortality rate. The infant mortality rate is one measure of performance assessment especially local government health departments in improving the health of society. The infant mortality rate is the number of infant deaths under one year old per 1000 live births in a given year. In this study there are six factors thought to affect the infant mortality rate in the province of North Sumatra. The method which is used to model the infant mortality rate and the factors that is suspected influencing is spline nonparametric regression. This method was chosen because it would split the spline regression curve based on the point of optimal knots so that the error will be small. The selection is done by selecting the most minimum knots point value of the Generalized Cross Validation GCV. The minimum GCV in this study were from a combination of knots to six knots with consecutive variables are 23333 and 3. Based on the analysis conducted 6 variables that significantly influence the IMR is the percentage of married women under the age of 17 years the percentage of women who had not been to school or did not complete elementary school MI the percentage of births using non-medical personnel the percentage of the population of middle socioeconomic class the ratio of health facilities health personnel ratio. Spline nonparametric regression models which is produced has a coefficient of determination equal to 98.314.



Keywordsangka kematian bayi, regresi nonparametrik, spline
 
Subject:  Analisi Regresi
Contributor
  1. Prof. Dr. Drs. I Nyoman Budiantara, M.Si
Date Create: 23/06/2015
Type: Text
Format: PDF
Language: Indonesian
Identifier: ITS-Undergraduate-13101150007280
Collection ID: 13101150007280
Call Number: RSSt 519.536 Gin p


Source
Undergraduate Theses of Statistic RSSt 519.536 Gin p, 2015

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Copyright @2015 by ITS Library. This publication is protected by copyright and per obtained from the ITS Library prior to any prohibited reproduction, storage in a re transmission in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, reco For information regarding permission(s), write to ITS Library




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  1.  ITS-Undergraduate-38078-1310100081-Abstract_ind.pdf - 255 KB
  2.  ITS-Undergraduate-38078-1310100081-Abstract_eng.pdf - 254 KB




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