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ITS » Undergraduate Theses » Teknik Kes & Keselamatan Kerja
Posted by hassane@its.ac.id at 26/05/2010 14:37:08  •  3279 Views


PENERAPAN VECTOR AR DENGAN UJI GRANGER CAUSALITY UNTUK PEMODELAN DERET RUANG-WAKTU CURAH HUJAN DI SUARABAYA

VECTOR AR IMPLEMENTATION WITH GRANGER CAUSALITY TEST FOR RAIN RATE SPACE-TIME SERIES MODELING IN SURABAYA

Author :
Soesetijo, Sis ( 2208203004 )




ABSTRAK

Salah satu teknik untuk mengatasi redaman hujan pada gelombang milimeter adalah site diversity. Namun untuk mendapatkan teknik site diversity yang tepat membutuhkan pengetahuan dasar tentang karakteristik statistik hujan yang bervariasi terhadap ruang dan waktu. Pada penelitian ini dibahas pemodelan deret ruang-waktu curah hujan dari 4 lokasi pengukuran hujan dengan menggunakan Vector AR VAR. Validasi model VAR menggunakan 3 metode yaitu grafik ECDF grafik qqplot dan analisis residu model. Untuk memperoleh hubungan kausalitas antar 4 lokasi hujan maka pada pemodelan VAR disertai dengan uji Granger Causality. Hasil validasi menunjukkan bahwa model VAR sesuai dan tepat untuk pemodelan curah hujan untuk 4 lokasi Perhitungan nilai rata-rata spasial RMSE pada setiap model event hujan mendapatkan akurasi model yang baik dengan rentang 0273 0763. Uji Granger Causality mendapatkan dimensi sel hujan pada masing-masing event hujan. Hasil penelitian terhadap 65 event hujan sepanjang Januari 2008 dan Februari 2009 menunjukkan bahwa diameter sel hujan antara 1000 1550 m mempunyai prosentasi 8888. Diameter sel hujan ini dalam aplikasi site diversity berarti jarak minimum antar site adalah 1000 1500 m dengan membentuk sudut 180.


ABSTRACT

Site diversity is one of the FMT techniques that is a base system design on the nature of rain rate that change to the time and space. However to get appropriate site diversity need deep knowledges about rain rate dynamic and statistical characteristic. In this research rain rate space-time series modeling in 4 rain gauges location studied by using Vector AR VAR model with Granger Causality test. To validate VAR model it used 3 methods ECDF Graphic Comparison QQPlot method and model residual analysis. And to find interrelationship between rain gauges location it used Granger Causality Test in VAR model. The result showed that VAR model is correct and appropriate model for rain rate space time series modeling in 4 rain gauges location. These VAR models have good accuration with RMSE Spatial Mean between 0.273 0.763. Granger Causality test is used to find interrelationship between variables in one location to another rain gauge location. From Causality test showed that rain cell dimension is provided. And from 65 rain events concluded that rain cell dimension between 1000 1500 m in Surabaya have percentage 88.88. In site diversity application rain cell dimension means minimum separation distance between sites with 180 angle.



KeywordsSpace-Time Series; VAR; Granger Causality; Rain Cell Distribution
 
Subject:  Matematika
Contributor
  1. Gamantyo Hendrantoro, Prof. Dr. Ir
Date Create: 23/01/2010
Type: Text
Format: pdf
Language: Indonesian
Identifier: ITS-Undergraduate-3100010039549
Collection ID: 3100010039549
Call Number: RTE 515.243 Soe p


Source
Master Thesis, Electrical Engineering, RTE 515.243 Soe p, 2010

Coverage
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Rights
Copyright @2010 by ITS Library. This publication is protected by copyright and per obtained from the ITS Library prior to any prohibited reproduction, storage in a re transmission in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, reco For information regarding permission(s), write to ITS Library




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  1.  ITS-Undergraduate-10472-Abstract_id.pdf - 74 KB
  2.  ITS-Undergraduate-10472-Abstract_en.pdf - 59 KB
  3.  ITS-Undergraduate-10472-Conclusion.pdf - 66 KB
  4.  ITS-Undergraduate-10472-Paper.pdf - 358 KB




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