EMAIL: PASSWORD:
Front Office
UPT. PERPUSTAKAAN
Institut Teknologi Sepuluh Nopember Surabaya


Kampus ITS Sukolilo - Surabaya 60111

Phone : 031-5921733 , 5923623
Fax : 031-5937774
E-mail : libits@its.ac.id
Website : http://library.its.ac.id

Support (Customer Service) :
timit_perpus@its.ac.id




Welcome..guys!

Have a problem with your access?
Please, contact our technical support below:
LIVE SUPPORT


Moh. Fandika Aqsa


Davi Wahyuni


Tondo Indra Nyata


Anis Wulandari


Ansi Aflacha




ITS » Undergraduate Theses » Teknik Informatika Ekstensi - S1
Posted by dee@its.ac.id at 19/05/2011 10:56:56  •  2348 Views


PERAMALAN PEMAKAIAN AIR DI PERUSAHAAN DAERAH AIR MINUM KOTA SURABAYA DENGAN MENGGUNAKAN ADAPTIVE NEURO FUZZY INFERENCE SYSTEM

A WATER USAGE FORECASTING AT SURABAYA REGIONAL WATER COMPANY USING ADAPTIVE NEURO FUZZY INFERENCE SYSTEM

Author :
AMIR, NASRUL  ( 5104109614 )




ABSTRAK

Dalam hal manajemen perencanaan memiliki peranan penting. Hampir semua kegiatan dalam suatu manajemen yang teratur telah direncanakan terlebih dahulu. Sedangkan peramalan merupakan alat bantu yang penting untuk membuat perencanaan lebih efektif dan efisien. Karena dengan peramalan dapat diketahui peristiwa yang akan terjadi pada waktu yang akan di rencanakan.Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System merupakan salah satu metode peramalan yang menggabungkan fungsi yang terdapat pada Fuzzy Logic dan Neural Network sehingga didapatkan algoritma yang lebih sempurna. Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System juga melibatkan penggunaan algoritma Fuzzy C-Means untuk tujuan pengelompokan data serta algoritma pembelajaran hybrid yang terdiri dari Least Square Estimation dan Gradien Descent untuk memperbaiki parameterparameter Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System.Dari hasil penelitian dengan menggunakan 4 model input data diketahui bahwa kesalahan rata-rata terkecil dari hasil prediksi untuk tiap-tiap data pemakaian air pelangan PDAM Kota Surabaya dihasilkan oleh model input yang berbeda-beda. Hasil terbaik untuk zona 1 zona 2 dan zona 3 adalah dengan menggunakan model 5 sedangkan untuk zona 4 dan zona 5 hasil prediksi terbaik diperoleh dengan menggunakan model 3. MAPE terbaik sebesar 3.78 untuk zona 1 4.32 untuk zona 2 3.69 untuk zona 3 3.92 untuk zona 4 dan 3.3 untuk zona 5. Hasil perhitungan MAPE tersebut menunjukan bahwa metode peramalan Adaptive Neuro Fuzzy Inference System model FIS Takagi-Sugeno berhasil diimplementasikan untuk peramalan data runtun waktu pada kasus pemakaian air di PDAM Kota Surabaya.


ABSTRACT

Planning has a crucial role in management. Almost all of management activity has been managed in Advance. Important tool to make planning more effective and efficient is forecasting. Because it helps you to know what will happenend in a planned time. Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System is one of forecasting method that combines functions in a fuzzy logic and neural network so more perfect algorithm can be gotten. Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System also involve the use of Fuzzy C-Means Algorithm for grouping data and hybrid learning algorithm that consist Least Square Estimation and Gradien Descent for fixing the parameters of Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System. the result of experiments using 4 model data input prove that the smallest average error from the prediction of each customers water usage in PDAM Surabaya generated by different input models. The best result for zone 1 zone 2 and zone 3 is using model 5. The best prediction result for zone 4 and zone 5 is using model 3. best MAPE for zone 1 is 3.78 zone 2 is 4.32 zone 3 is 3.69 zone 4 is 3.92 and zone 5 is 3.3. Mape calculations result shows that our forecasting method Adaptive Neuro Fuzzy Inference System model of Takagi-Sugeno FIS successfully implemented for forecasting time series data on water usage in the case of PDAM Surabaya.



KeywordsFuzzy C-Means; FCM; Anfis; Adaptive Neuro Fuzzy inference system; LSE; Gradien descent
 
Subject:  Kontrol jarak jauh; Teori kontrol
Contributor
  1. AHMAD SAIKHU, S.Si., M.T.
Date Create: 06/08/2010
Type: Text
Format: pdf
Language: Indonesian
Identifier: ITS-Undergraduate-3100010041083
Collection ID: 3100010041083
Call Number: RSIf 511.313 Ami p


Source
Undergraduate Thesis of Informatics Engineering, RSIf 511.313 Ami p, 2010

Coverage
ITS Community

Rights
Copyright @2010 by ITS Library. This publication is protected by copyright and per obtained from the ITS Library prior to any prohibited reproduction, storage in a re transmission in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, reco For information regarding permission(s), write to ITS Library




[ Download - Open Access ]

  1.  ITS-Undergraduate-14530-5104109614-Abstract_id.pdf - 187 KB
  2.  ITS-Undergraduate-14530-5104109614-Abstract_en.pdf - 186 KB
  3.  ITS-Undergraduate-14530-5104109614-Conclusion.pdf - 172 KB




 Similar Document...




! ATTENTION !

To facilitate the activation process, please fill out the member application form correctly and completely

Registration activation of our members will process up to max 24 hours (confirm by email). Please wait patiently

POLLING

Bagaimana pendapat Anda tentang layanan repository kami ?

Bagus Sekali
Baik
Biasa
Jelek
Mengecewakan





You are connected from 54.167.253.186
using CCBot/2.0 (http://commoncrawl.org/faq/)



Copyright © ITS Library 2006 - 2017 - All rights reserved.
Dublin Core Metadata Initiative and OpenArchives Compatible
Developed by Hassan