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ITS » Paper and Presentation » Statistika
Posted by fandikaaqsa@yahoo.co.id at 29/09/2014 19:16:07  •  1354 Views


DECLUSTERING PEAKS OVER THRESHOLD PADA DATA CURAH HUJAN EKSTRIM DEPENDEN DI SENTRA PRODUKSI PADI JAWA TIMUR

DECLUSTERING PEAKS OVER THRESHOLD OF DEPENDENT EXTREME RAINFALL IN CENTER OF PADDY PRODUCTION IN EAST JAVA

Author :
MALIKA, ROSNA ( 1310100073 )   Dr. Sutikno, S.Si, M.Si




ABSTRAK

Iklim ekstrim merupakan fenomena langka namun dapat memicu dampak merugikan salah satunya bagi sektor pertanian. Curah hujan yang ekstrim perlu diidentifikasi untuk mengurangi kerugian pertanian. Extreme Value Theory EVT merupakan salah satu metode statistika yang digunakan untuk mempelajari perilaku nilai-nilai ekstrim. Salah satu yang menjadi penting dalam model extreme value adalah return level. Return level merupakan nilai maksimum yang diharapkan akan dilampaui satu kali dalam jangka waktu tertentu. Sebelum menentukan nilai return level terlebih dahulu harus diketahui nilai parameter distribusi EVT yang dipilih dengan syarat urutan data harus independen. Namun pada kenyataannya seringkali ditemukan data ekstrim yang dependen akibatnya akan diperoleh nilai return level yang tidak valid. Salah satu cara untuk mengatasi hal tersebut dengan metode declustering. Penelitian ini menganalisis data curah hujan ekstrim dependen dengan pendekatan Peaks Over Threshold POT serta mengatasi dependensi data dengan declustering. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa metode declustering berhasil mengatasi dependensi data namun tidak menghasilkan return level yang lebih baik daripada non declustering. Hal ini ditunjukkan nilai RMSE return level declustering yang sama dengan non declustering. Oleh karena itu pada analisis selanjutnya sebaiknya menggunakan metode pemodelan parameter Generalized Pareto Distribution.


ABSTRACT

Extreme climate is a rare phenomenon that lead bad impact for the agricultural sector. Extreme rainfall event need to be identified to minimize losses due to the incident. Extreme Value Theory EVT is one of the statistical methods that used to study the behavior of extreme value. It is usually more convenient to interpret extreme value models in terms of return levels. To determine the value of return level must be known parameter values of distribution first. Each of extreme value models derived so far has been obtained through mathematical arguments that assume an underlying process consisting of a sequence of independent random variables. However in the real case this condition is often violated then its reducing the validity of conclusions. This research was conducted in five districts as the center of paddy production in East Java. In this study the method of approach to the Peaks Over Threshold POT is used to determine the return level and its also used declustering method to solve the problem of dependent data. The results showed that the order of the data become more independent when declustering method is applied. But the RMSE of return level by using declustering method have same value as RMSE of return level with non declustering method. Furthermore it will be better if the data analyze with appro



KeywordsCurah Hujan ; Extreme Value Theory (EVT) ; Peaks Over Threshold ; Generalized Pareto Distribution ; Declustering, Return Level.
 
Subject:  Statistik -- Metode grafis
Date Create: 29/09/2014
Type: Text
Format: PDF
Language: Indonesian
Identifier: ITS-paper-13021140005208
Collection ID: 13021140005208
Call Number: RSSt 519.5 Mal d


Source
Paper and Presentations of Statistics RSSt 519.5 Mal d, 2014

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Copyright @2014 by ITS Library. This publication is protected by copyright and per obtained from the ITS Library prior to any prohibited reproduction, storage in a re transmission in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, reco For information regarding permission(s), write to ITS Library




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  1.  ITS-paper-31926-1310100073-Paper.pdf - 944 KB
  2.  ITS-paper-31926-1310100073-Presentation.pdf - 3825 KB




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