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ITS » Paper and Presentation » Statistika
Posted by tondoindra@gmail.com at 23/03/2016 09:48:50  •  1095 Views


PREDICTION OF X MOTORCYCLE SALES IN MALANG REGENCY AND MALANG CITY USING HIERARCHICAL FORECASTING METHOD

PREDIKSI PENJUALAN SEPEDA MOTOR MEREK X DI KABUPATEN DAN KOTAMADYA MALANG DENGAN METODE PERAMALAN HIERARKI

Author :
SUSANTI, RIKA ( 1310100066 )




ABSTRAK

Penjualan sepeda motor merek X cenderung mengalami peningkatan setiap tahun. Selain itu ada indikasi bahwa penjualannya mempunyai pola musiman dan cenderung tinggi pada saat menjelang atau sesudah lebaran. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk meramalkan penjualan sepeda motor merek X di Kabupaten dan Kotamadya Malang dimana dua wpilayah tersebut merupakan wilayah dengan penjualan yang tertinggi di Jawa Timur. Peramalan dalam penelitian ini dilakukan menggunakan metode peramalan hierarki karena data penjualan tersebut dapat didisagregasi menurut jenis produk dan waktu. Pendekatan yang dilakukan yaitu pendekatan top-down dan bottom-up. Berdasarkan pemodelan pada level 1 dengan pendekatan top-down diketahui bahwa penjualan tahunan di Kabupaten Malang dipengaruhi oleh jumlah penduduk usia produktif sedangkan di Kotamadya Malang penjualannya dipengaruhi oleh PDRB per kapita. Metode peramalan hierarki terbaik untuk memprediksi penjualan sepeda motor merek X di Kabupaten dan Kotamadya Malang masing-masing adalah dengan pendekatan bottom-up dan pendekatan top-down dengan perhitungan proporsi pada level 2 untuk jenis matic menggunakan proporsi ramalan untuk cub menggunakan proporsi data histori 2 dan untuk jenis sport menggunakan proporsi data histori 1.


ABSTRACT

Sales of X motorcycle tend to increase every year. In addition there are indications that X motorcycles sale have seasonal patterns and tends to be high before or after Eid Day. This research aims to predict the sales of X motorcycle in Malang regency and Malang city which two regions with the highest sale of X motorcycles in East Java. This research was conducted by using hierarchical forecasting method because X sales data consisting of sales data for three types of motorcycles and the annual sales data can be disagregate into monthly sales data. The approach taken is a top-down and bottom-up. Based on modeling at level 1 with a top-down approach it is known that annual sales of X in Malang Regency is influenced by the number of productive age population while in Malang City sales affected by Gross Domestic Produk GDP per capita. The best hierarchy forecasting method to predict the sales of X motorcycle in Malang Regency is the bottom-up approach whereas in the Malang citys best model obtained by the top-down approach which is the calculation of the proportion for matic use Forecasting Proportions for cub using Hystorical Proportion 2 and for sport using Hystorical Proportion 1.



KeywordsBottom-up, Sepeda Motor Merek X, Top-down
 
Subject:  Statistik
Contributor
  1. Dra. Destri Susilaningrum, M.Si
  2. Dr. Suhartono
Date Create: 23/03/2016
Type: Text
Format: PDF
Language: Indonesian
Identifier: ITS-paper-13121150008690
Collection ID: 13121150008690
Call Number: RSSt 519.55 Sus p


Source
Paper And Presentation Of Statistics RSSt 519.55 Sus p, 2016

Coverage
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Copyright @2016 by ITS Library. This publication is protected by copyright and per obtained from the ITS Library prior to any prohibited reproduction, storage in a re transmission in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, reco For information regarding permission(s), write to ITS Library




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  1.  ITS-paper-40909-1310100066-Paper.pdf - 456 KB
  2.  ITS-paper-40909-1310100066-Presentation.pdf - 2142 KB




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