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ITS » Paper and Presentation » Manajemen Operasional (S2)
Posted by tondoindra@gmail.com at 13/10/2014 22:09:56  •  580 Views


ANALISIS PEMENUHAN KEBUTUHAN BERAS DI JAWA TIMUR DENGAN PENDEKATAN SISTEM DINAMIK

SUPPLY RICE ANALYSIS FOR FULFILLMENT NEED USING SYSTEM DYNAMICS APPROACH STUDY CASE EAST JAVA INDONESIA

Author :
NIEKO HARYO PRADHITO ( 2511205704 )




ABSTRAK

Pemenuhan kebutuhan pangan merupakan salah satu hal yang krusial bagi stabilitas suatu negara di dunia. Pertumbuhan penduduk yang cepat namun tidak diimbangi dengan produksi pangan akan menjadi ancaman kekurangan penyediaan kebutuhan pangan di masa depan dikarenakan ketidakseimbangan antara supply dan demand. Tujuan dari penelitian ini adalah untuk menganalisis proses pemenuhan kebutuhan beras secara holistik dalam konteks sistem rantai pasok dan menganalisis resiko yang mungkin muncul sebagai variabel yang penting serta melakukan proyeksi kemampuan pemenuhan beras di masa depan dengan menggunakan skenario simulasi. Metode Sistem Dinamik dipilih karena kemampuannya dalam menyelesaikan masalah dengan kompleksitas hubungan antara variabel dan perilaku di dalam sistem. Hasil akhir penelitian menunjukkan variabel utama yang paling mempengaruhi produksi beras adalah ketersediaan lahan. Peningkatan sumber daya input untuk proses tanam seperti benih pupuk dan pestisida yang disebut dengan strategi intensifikasi dapat meningkatkan produksi untuk persediaan beras sebesar 2.464.43296 tontahun. Pemanfaatan produksi sekunder seperti jagung ubi kayu dan ubi jalar juga dapat mengurangi ketergantungan beras hingga sebesar 973.58771 tontahun. Penerapan skenario perbaikan ini selain mampu meningkatkan jumlah persediaan beras juga mampu menekan angka ketergantungan pada beras impor. Kontribusi penelitian ini adalah dengan Sistem Dinamik mampu melakukan simulasi model untuk beberapa skenario perbaikan.


ABSTRACT

Food security nowadays becomes a critical matter for every country in the world. This problem becomes alarming due to rapid increase of global population and continuously shrinkage of productive land. The issue of global warming has made this problem become more complex and has attracted attention from various disciplines. Using system dynamics this research developed model to analyze the case of rice the staple food in Indonesia supply in East Java. The model was built based on the point of view of rice supply chain. The purposes of the research are three folds 1 to identify the key player of rice supply in East Java 2 analyze the plausible risk in rice supply chain 3 develop several scenarios of policy to deal with rice shortage. The analysis shows that the availability of productive land is the main factor of the rice supply. From modeling scenario the results show that improvement of seed quality and availability use of fertilizer and efficiency in production could increase the rice supply of 2.464.43296 tonsyear. The use of non-rice products such as corn cassava and sweet potato as the main diet could reduce the demand of rice of 973.587.71 tonsyear. The above scenarios also reduce the dependency of imported rice so that increase the nation food security. This research contributes to the body of knowledge by developing based model of System Dynamic that can be used to simulate different types of policy in rice supply.



Keywordsketersediaan pangan, rantai pasok beras, Sistem Dinamik, kebijakan pangan
 
Subject:  Analisis sistem
Contributor
  1. Imam Baihaqi, S.T., M.Sc., Ph.D.
  2. Prof. Dr. Ir. Budisantoso Wirjodirdjo
Date Create: 14/08/2013
Type: Text
Format: PDF
Language: Indonesian
Identifier: ITS-paper-25021140005404
Collection ID: 25021140005404
Call Number: RTI 003.85 Pra a


Source
Paper And Presentation of Industrial Engineering RTI 003.85 Pra a, 2014

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Copyright @2013 by ITS Library. This publication is protected by copyright and per obtained from the ITS Library prior to any prohibited reproduction, storage in a re transmission in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, reco For information regarding permission(s), write to ITS Library




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