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ITS » Master Theses » Manajemen Industri-S2 MMT
Posted by tedjo at 02/01/2007 15:57:38  •  7628 Views



Created by :

KeywordPerencanaan Agregat
Solusi Optimal
Skenario Kebijakan


Pengelolaan sistem produksi yang optimal mutlak perlu dilakukan untuk mendapatkan keuntungan semaksimal mungkin yang salah satunya dapat dilakukan melalui perencanaan agregat produksi yang baik. Penelitian Perencanaan Produksi Agregat di PT Otsuka Indonesia ini bertujuan untuk membuat dan menganalisa perencanaan produksi yang meminimumkan total biaya produksi serta menggunakan informasi dari perencanaan untuk optimalisasi produksi sehingga diperoleh keuntungan yang maksimum. Terdapat lima jenis produk Infus yang diteliti (Produk A, B, C, D dan E) dalam perencanaan agregat. Metode-metode yang digunakan dalam penelitian diantaranya adalah metode peramalan dengan menggunakan sembilan model peramalan dan metode Linear Programming untuk perencanaan agregat dan optimasi produksi di unit produk Infus. Pengolahan data untuk menentukan metode peramalan terbaik digunakan bantuan software QS (Quantitative System) dan untuk perencanaan agregat serta disagregasi produk digunakan bantuan software WinQSB dengan model dasar Linear Programming. Pemilihan model peramalan terbaik didasarkan pada parameter-parameter Bias, Mean Square Error (MSE) atau Mean Squared Deviation (MSD). Model peramalan terpilih untuk produk A, B, C, D dan E berturut-turut adalah model Moving Average with Linear Trend (M=12), model Weighted Moving Average (M=12). model Simple Average, Model Double Exponential Smoothing with Linear-Trend dan model Moving Average with Linear Trend (m=4). Perencanaan agregat memberikan rekomendasi jumlah produksi total dalam satu tahun kedepan yang terbagi dalam 12 periode dengan total produksi sebanyak 16.895.359 botol dengan total biaya produksi Rp. 24.302.895.000 dan keuntungan Rp. 30.808.521.900. Solusi optimal dari disagregasi adalah Produk A=1.965.472 botol, B=2.202.060 botol, C=4.927.140 botol, D=3.000.939 botol dan E=4.397.388 botol. Untuk antisipasi perubahan kondisi di masa mendatang disusun dua skenario kebijakan lain yaitu tidak memperbolehkan overtime dan memungkinkan overtime dengan pemenuhan tingkat produksi minimum untuk setiap jenis produk. Berdasarkan solusi optimal yang diperoleh ternyata skenario 1 seperti diatas yang memperbolehkan overtime maksimum masih memberikan tingkat keuntungan tertinggi dibanding skenario 2 (Rp. dan skenario 3 (Rp.

Alt. Description

The production system should be manage optimum in accordance to gain maximum profit, in which can be through a good aggregate production plan. The study of aggregate production planning in PT Otsuka Indonesia has a goal to build and analyze production plan to minimize total production cost and to utilize the gathered information of the plan to optimize the cost of product. So that, can achieve the maximum profit. There are five main IV (intra vena) solution products involved in this aggregate planning study (product A, B, C, D and E). One of the method which be using in this study is the nine forecasting model and Linear Programming method to optimize the production in IV solution unit. In data processing to get the best forecasting method by utilizing the QS (Quantitative System) software, the selection of the fittest base on the parameter : bias. Mean Square Error (MSE) and Mean Square Deviation (MSD). And to do aggregation or to do the dis-aggregration with the basic is Linear Programming model, utilize the WinQSB software. The forecast model selected for A, B. C, D and E products are : Moving Average with Linear Trend (M=12) model, Weighted Moving Average (M=12) model, Simple Average. Model Double Exponential Smoothing with Linear Trend model, and Moving Average with Linear Trend (M=4) model. Aggregate Production Planning gives recommendation of production unit number in a year totally 16.895.359 units divided in 12 periods with total production cost Rp. 24.302.895.000 and profit margin Rp.30.808.521.900. Dis-aggregation optimum solutions are Product A=1.965.472 units, B=2.202.060 units. C=4.927.140 units, D=3.000.939 units and E=4.397.388 units. To anticipate the change of the conditions in the future, there are two other policies constructed which are no overtime allowed but no lower bound for each products and the other one with lower bound for each. Base on optimum solution, the best result is the 1st scenario which allow overtime, compare to the 2nd scenario with the profit margin Rp. and the 3rd scenario Rp.

  1. Dr. Ir. Moses L. Singgih, MSc., MRegSc.
Date Create:02/01/2007
Format:Pdf ; 85 pages
Collection ID:3100005022840
Call Number:658.5 Sud p,

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Theses Master of Technology Management RTMM 658.5 Sud p, 2005

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Agregat , Disagregasi , Kebijakan , Optimal , Peramalan , Perencanaan , Perencanaan Agregat , Skenario , Skenario Kebijakan , Solusi , Solusi Optimal


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