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ITS » Master Theses » Rekayasa Kualitas S2
Posted by dee@its.ac.id at 16/06/2011 11:13:49  •  4186 Views


ANALISIS PENGARUH HARGA BBM TERHADAP PENDAPATAN MASYARAKAT NELAYAN PESISIR UTARA JAWA SEBUAH PENDEKATAN MODEL BERBASIS SISTEM DINAMIK

FUEL PRICE IMPACT ANALYSIS ON COASTAL FISHERMAN COMMUNITY INCOMES A MODELING APPROACH BASED ON SYSTEM DINAMICS

Author :
LADAMAY, ODE SITI ANDINI  ( 2508201201 )




ABSTRAK

Fluktuasi dan ketidakstabilan harga minyak dunia serta besarnya tekanan krisis ekonomi global memberikan tekanan besar kepada perekonomian Indonesia.. Sebagai bentuk langkah penyesuaian terhadap harga minyak dunia dan pengurangan beban besaran subsidi pada akhirnya pemerintah terpaksa harus menaikkan harga BBM. Kenaikan tersebut berpengaruh besar pada hampir semua sektor karena memicu peningkatan biaya produksi dan operasional. Salah satu kelompok masyarakat yang memperoleh dampak langsung dari kenaikan harga BBM adalah masyarakat nelayan pesisir. Nelayan adalah komunitas dengan tingkat pendapatan terendah dibandingkan sektor usaha lain. Bagi Nelayan BBM merupakan komponen penting dalam kegiatan operasional mereka yang pada akhirnya berpengaruh pada harga jual hasil laut. Di sisi lain kenaikan biaya operasional tidak diimbangi oleh peningkatan daya beli konsumen ikan. Penelitian ini mengembangkan sebuah instrumen pemodelan dinamis yang mengevaluasi dampak kebijakan penentuan harga BBM dalam usaha untuk mengantisipasi terjadinya penurunan tingkat kesejahteraan kelompok masyarakat nelayan pesisir di Indonesia. Model yang dihasilkan dapat digunakan oleh pengambil kebijakan sebagai sebuah mekanisme peringatan dini early warning berkenaan dengan masalah tersebut. Setelah dilakukan validasi didapatkan kesimpulan bahwa Pada level harga BBM saat ini premium Rp 4500- kesejahteraan masyarakat nelayan cukup rendah. Adanya Bantuan Langsung Tunai BLT sebesar Rp 100.00000 tidak signifikan berpengaruh terhadap kesejahteraan masyarakat nelayan. Jika Hasil subsidi dihapus maka efek penurunan simpanan nelayan mencapai dua kali lipat dari kondisi awal pada saat BBM masih disubsidi. Dan akhirnya model yang dikembangkan menemukan bahwa nelayan setidaknya harus diberikan subsidi sekitar 28 atau Rp.1.000 agar nelayan tetap dapat mencukupi kebutuhan hidupnya.


ABSTRACT

Fluctuations and instability of world oil prices and the pressure of global economic crisis give great pressure to the Indonesian economy. As a response to the increasing of the oil prices and a reduction in the amount of subsidy burden the government eventually forced to raise fuel prices. The increased price had a big influence on almost all sectors because it triggers increasing in production and operating costs. One of the sectors who get the direct impact of rising fuel prices is a coastal fishing community. Fishermen are a community with the lowest income level compared to other business sectors. For Fishermen fuel is an important component in their operations which in turn affects the price of marinefishing products. On the other hand increases in operational costs are not followed by increasing of consumer purchasing power. In this study a dynamic modeling instrument is developed to evaluate the impact of fuel pricing policy to prevent the declining welfares of the coastal fishing communities in Indonesia. This model also can be used by the decisionpolicies as an early warning mechanism on this problem. After validated it was concluded that at current fuel price level premium of Rp4500 - the welfare of fishing communities was quite low. The existences of direct cash assistance program BLT of Rp 100.00000 not significantly affect the welfare of fishing communities. If the subsidies removed then the security deposit fishermen decline to reach twice the initial conditions when the fuel is still subsidiaries. Finally the model found that amount of oil price-subsidies that should be given to the fisherman is at least about 28 Rp.1.000 thus fishermen can still keep the welfare of their daily lives.



KeywordsSistem Dinamik; Nelayan Pesisir
 
Subject:  Analisis diskriminan
Contributor
  1. Prof. Dr. Ir. Budisantoso Wirjodirdjo, M.Eng
  2. Dr. Maria Anityasari, ST, ME
Date Create: 06/08/2010
Type: Text
Format: pdf
Language: Indonesian
Identifier: ITS-Master-3100010040559
Collection ID: 3100010040559
Call Number: RTI 519.53 Lad a


Source
Master Thesis of Industrial Engineering, RTI 519.53 Lad a, 2010

Coverage
ITS Community

Rights
Copyright @2010 by ITS Library. This publication is protected by copyright and per obtained from the ITS Library prior to any prohibited reproduction, storage in a re transmission in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, reco For information regarding permission(s), write to ITS Library




[ Download - Open Access ]

  1.  ITS-Master-14806-2508201201-Abstract_id.pdf - 160 KB
  2.  ITS-Master-14806-2508201201-Abstract_en.pdf - 161 KB
  3.  ITS-Master-14806-2508201201-Conclusion.pdf - 212 KB




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