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ITS » Undergraduate Theses » Statistika Ekstensi - S1
Posted by aguss at 09/03/2009 19:26:17  •  9545 Views


INTERVENTION ANALYSIS SALE FUEL ENGGINE OF EFFECT INCREASE PRICE SELL FUEL ENGGINE IN PT. SURYA TIGA DARA PEMALANG CENTER JAVA

Author :
BASANOVA, MALACHITE 




ABSTRAK

Pertumbuhan perekonomian Indonesia menyebabkan semakin banyak jumlah kendaraan bermotor sehingga semakin besar pula konsumsi bahan bakar motor terutama premium. Tujuan penelitian ini adalah untuk meramalkan penjualan premium beberapa hari kemudian supaya kebutuhan premium terpenuhi. Metode yang tepat untuk meramalkan penjualan tersebut adalah metode intervensi karena adanya kenaikan harga penjualan premium sehingga mendorong masyarakat membeli premium dalam jumlah lebih besar pada saat yang sama. Metode ARIMA dan metode intervensi yang sesuai dengan penjualan premium. model ARIMA mempunyai arti peramalan hari ini dipengaruhi penjualan hari kemarindan error hari kemarin model intervensi mempunyai arti pada saat terjadi kenaikan harga jual premium efeknya terjadi 2 hari sebelum kenaikan dan 1 hari sebelum kenaikan dan pada hari kenaikan setelah itu kembali normal atau dapat dikatakan penjualan premium kembali stabil.


ABSTRACT

Indonesia economics growth causing increasing amount of motor vehicle obviously it also make the fuel engine consume increasingly in number. Research aim is to forecast the sale of premium few days later then fullvill the economic needle. One of the appropriate methode to forecast the sale premium is intervention methode caused by it increase of price premium sale that attracting the society to buy the bigger premium in numbe in the same time. ARIMA and intervention method produce best model of premium sale ARIMA model have the meaning forecasting today influenced by sale forecasting yesterday error yesterday intervention model have the meaning at the moment increase of price sell the premium its effect 2 day before increase and 1 day before increase and on the day of increase afterwards return normal or can be told premium sale return to stabilize.



KeywordsARIMA, intervensi
 
Subject:  Analisis diskriminan
Contributor
  1. R. MOHAMMAD ATOK, S.Si, M.Si
Date Create: 09/03/2009
Type: Text
Format: pdf
Language: Indonesian
Identifier: ITS-Undergraduate-3100008030823
Collection ID: 3100008030823
Call Number: RSSt 519.535 Bas a


Source
Undergraduate Theses, Statistics, RSSt 519.535 Bas a, 2007

Coverage
ITS Community Only




[ Download - Summary ]

ITS-Undergraduate-3100008030823-3724.pdf




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