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ITS » Undergraduate Theses » Statistika
Posted by yeni at 20/11/2009 18:29:54  •  3665 Views


COMPARISON OF MULTI INPUT INTERVENTION MODEL AND VAR MODEL WITH LEVEL SHIFT FOR FORECASTING THE AMOUNT OF FOREIGN TOURISTS IN NGURAH RAI AIRPORT-BALI AND SELAPARANG AIRPORT-MATARAM

Author :
Aini, Qurrotul 




ABSTRAK

Bandara Ngurah Rai Bali dan Selaparang-Mataram merupakan salah satu pintu masuk wisatawan mancanegara wisman yang berkunjung ke Indonesia. Penelitian ini dilakukan dengan tujuan membandingkan model intervensi multi input dan VAR dengan level shift dalam meramalkan jumlah kunjungan wisman yang masuk melalui bandara Ngurah Rai-Bali dan Selaparang-Mata-ram. Melalui penelitian ini diharapkan dapat diperoleh suatu model statistik yang sesuai untuk meramalkan jumlah kunjungan wisman yang masuk melalui bandara Ngurah Rai-Bali dan Sela-parang-Mataram pada waktu yang akan datang. Data yang digu-nakan dalam penelitian ini adalah data jumlah kunjungan wis-man di bandara Ngurah Rai-Bali dan Selaparang-Mataram dari Januari 1998 sampai April 2008 yang diterbitkan oleh Badan Pusat Statistik. Metode analisis yang digunakan dalam penelitian ini adalah model intervensi multi input dan model VAR dengan level shift. Hasil analisis data menunjukkan bahwa model terbaik pada data in-sample di dua bandara tersebut adalah model in-tervensi multi input. Pada data out-sample didapatkan model terbaik untuk peramalan jumlah wisman yang melalui bandara Ngurah Rai adalah model VAR dengan level shift sedangkan model terbaik untuk peramalan jumlah wisman yang melalui bandara Selaparang adalah model intervensi multi input.


ABSTRACT

Ngurah Rai airport-Bali and Selaparang airport-Mataram are ones of the foreign tourist entrances to Indonesia. The objective of this re-search is to compare multi input intervention model and VAR model with level shift for forecasting the amount of foreign tourists visiting Indonesia through Ngurah Rai airport-Bali and Selaparang airport-Mataram. With this research a model which is suitable for forecas-ting the amount of foreign tourists entering through Ngurah Rai airport-Bali and Selaparang airport-Mataram will be found. Data used in this research is the amount of foreign tourists visiting through Ngurah Rai airport-Bali and Selaparang airport-Mataram from Januari 1998 until April 2008 which is published by BPS. Analysis methods used in this research are multi input intervention model and VAR model with level shift. The result shows that the best model for in-sample data for both airports is multi input intervention model. For out-sample data the best model to forecast the amount of foreign tourists through Ngurah Rai airport is VAR model with level shift and the best model for Selaparang airport is multi input inter-vention model.



KeywordsKunjungan Wisman;Ngurah Rai;Selaparang;Inter-vensi Multi Input;VAR dengan Level Shift
 
Subject:  Time-series analysis
Contributor
  1. "Dr. Brodjol Sutijo S.U., M.Si
    i Dr. Suhartono, S.Si., M.Sc"
Date Create: 20/11/2009
Type: Text
Format: pdf.
Language: Indonesian
Identifier: ITS-Undergraduate-3100009034867
Collection ID: 3100009034867
Call Number: RSSt 519.55 Ain p


Source
Undergraduate Theses,Departement of Statistics,RSSt 519.55 Ain p, 2009

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