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ITS » Paper and Presentation » Statistika - D3
Posted by ansi@its.ac.id at 18/10/2012 11:29:43  •  1370 Views


TIME SERIES ANALYSIS OF SONGKOK AWINGS SALES IN 3 CITIES GRESIK SEMARANG AND JAKARTA

Author :
LAILI, MASNATUL ( 1309030004 )




ABSTRAK

Perusahaan Awing di kota Gresik merupakan salah satu perusahaan songkok yang saat ini sangat berkembang di Indonesia. Penjualan songkok Awing sendiri dilakukan di 3 kota yaitu kota Gresik Semarang dan Jakarta yang setiap periode terus mengalami fluktuasi. Maka seiring dengan penjualan songkok yang selalu mengalami fluktuasi dari pihak perusahaan membutuhkan metode ramalan penjualan akan songkok. Ramalan penjualan songkok Awing ini dapat digunakan untuk mengetahui penjualan songkok Awing selama satu periode kedepan. Selain itu ramalan penjualan songkok Awing ini berguna dalam penyusunan dan perencanaan produksi. Penelitian ini menggunakan metode ARIMA Box-Jenkis dan metode Winter Smoothing. Didapatkan bahwa metode terbaik yang dapat menggambarkan besarnya penjualan songkok Awing di kota Gresik adalah metode Winter Smoothing dengan nilai 94502 94602 dan 94702. Sedangkan kota Semarang Jakarta dan 3 Kota adalah dengan metode yang sama yakni dengan metode ARIMA Box-Jenkins dengan model ARIMA 10012.


ABSTRACT

Awing is one of developing songkok companies in Indonesia and it is located in Gresik East Java. Awings sales its products to 3 cities is Gresik Semarang and Jakarta. Because of the fluctuating sales in each period company needs a forecast method to forecast one period ahead. It is also needed in the preparation and production planning. This study uses ARIMA Box-Jenkis and Smoothing Winter method to forecast Awings sales. The best method to forecast Awings sales in Gresik is the Winter Smoothing method with a value of 94502 94602 and 94702. While ARIMA Box-Jenkis is the best method to forecast Awings sales in Semarang Jakarta and 3 cities. The model of ARIMA Box-Jenkis is same ARIMA 100 12.



KeywordsSongkok Awing; ARIMA Box-Jenkins; Winter Smoothing
 
Subject:  Time-series analysis
Contributor
  1. Drs. Agus Suharsono, MS
Date Create: 09/07/2012
Type: Text
Format: pdf
Language: Indonesian
Identifier: ITS-paper-13021120001059
Collection ID: 13021120001059
Call Number: RSSt 519.55 Lai a


Source
Paper and Presentation of statistics, RSSt 519.55 Lai a, 2012

Coverage
ITS Community

Rights
Copyright @2012 by ITS Library. This publication is protected by copyright and per obtained from the ITS Library prior to any prohibited reproduction, storage in a re transmission in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, reco For information regarding permission(s), write to ITS Library




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ITS-paper-13021120001059-21604.pdf




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