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ITS » Paper and Presentation » Statistika - D3
Posted by tondoindra@gmail.com at 04/12/2015 11:14:41  •  891 Views


FORECASTING INTERNASIONAL PRICE OF NPK FERTILIZER USING ARIMA BOX-JENKINS METHOD

Author :
ANGGRAINI, DINI ( 1311030045 )




ABSTRAK

Pupuk merupakan salah satu faktor penting dalam peingkatan produktivitas pertanian. Di Indonesia dikenal berbagai macam jenis pupuk salah satunya adalah pupuk NPK Nitrophonska. Pengguanaan pupuk NPK di Indonesia secara bertahap mengalami kenaikan artinya para petani telah menggunakannya secara maksimal. Pemerintah Indonesia turut peduli terhadap hal tersebut melalui program revitalisasi industri pupuk. Dengan bertambahnya pabrik dan produksi pupuk NPK Indonesia dituntut untuk bersaing di pasar internasional tidak hanya di pasar lokal. Salah satu faktor yang perlu diperhatikan untuk bersaing di pasar internasional adalah harga dimana satuan mata uang adalah US dolar. Perusahaan pupuk di Indonesia dalam menentukan harga pupuk NPK internasional mengacu pada sebuah jurnal. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk mencari model peramalan dan meramalkan harga pupuk NPK internasional selama beberapa periode ke depan menggunakan metode ARIMA Box-Jenkins. Tetapi berdasarkan hasil analisis tidak ada model ARIMA yang terpilih untuk meramalkan harga pupuk NPK internasional karena asumsi residual berdistribusi normal tidak terpenuhi. Saran yang diberikan peneliti untuk penelitian selanjutnya dapat menggunakan metode statistik lain agar asumsi residual terpenuhi sehingga dapat melakukan peramalan.


ABSTRACT

Fetilizer is one of important factor in agricultures productivity. In Indonesia we have known many kinds of fertilizer one of them is NPK Nitrophonska fertilizer. Utilizing of NPK fertilizer in Indonesia have increase in stages it has meaning that the farmers have use them so maximal. Indonesians goverment join in parcitpates with the case by industrial of fertilizer revitalitation program. With the increase of factory and production of NPK fertilizer Indonesia demanded to compete at international market not only at local market. One of an important factor which need to pay attention to compete at international market is price where the unit of price using US dollar. Fertilizers factory in Indonesia make certain about the international price of NPK fertilizer based on an journal. This research has purpose to look for the forecasting model and forecast the international price of NPK fertilizer while some periods later using ARIMA Box-Jenkins method. But based on the result of analysis there is no ARIMAs model have chosen to forecast international price of NPK fertilizer because the residual asumption of normality distribution hasnt complete. Suggestion which given to next research can use other statistics method to complete residual asumption so the researcher can do the forecasting.



KeywordsPeramalan, Harga Pupuk NPK Internasional, ARIMA Box-Jenkins.
 
Subject:  Model permalan ARIMA
Contributor
  1. Adatul Mukarromah, S.Si., M.Si.
Date Create: 04/12/2015
Type: Text
Format: PDF
Language: Indonesian
Identifier: ITS-paper-13121150008265
Collection ID: 13121150008265
Call Number: RSSt 519.535 Ang p


Source
Paper and Presentation of Statistics RSSt 519.535 Ang p, 2015

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